Get Inspired Forecasts and Actual Demand

Finding The Perfect Match Between Forecasts and Actual Demand

The challenge: How to get the right goods at the right time to meet demand

The average consumer rarely thinks about how their bread, strawberries or broccoli get to the supermarket aisle. They however expect those products to be available, attractive and fresh. Grocery stores need to have enough of these perishable goods to meet demand. However, an over-supply will result in waste, lost sales and lower margins due to forced discounts. Determining the most accurate quantity and the best time to order products is crucial, but it’s a persistent challenge. A supermarket chain needed a better demand forecasting solution to keep up with customer demand while increasing sales and margin.

How we created value: A demand forecasting solution that delivers reliable and fast results

To help the supermarket chain source the right amount of products according to demand, we developed a demand forecasting solution based on a planning algorithm. First, we collected and analyzed all data available (for instance, articles, article groups, historical sales- and forecast figures) and ruled out events (such as holidays, and promotions) that can cause deviations from the normal pattern. Then, we looked for patterns and trends to incorporate into the algorithm. The resulting forecast is highly accurate, reliable, fast, and easily interpretable. Given that forecasts can only be as accurate as the real-time data they are fed, we considered it crucial for the organization (and store managers in particular) and helped them to adopt the solution and encourage data transparency.

Better results: Improved margins and customer satisfaction

The demand forecasting solution has enabled the supermarket chain to prevent lost sales and improve their margins, while better serving customer demands. The company saw a 40% improvement in the correlation between their forecast and actual demand, leading to a positive effect on financial results. Increased likelihood of customers finding their favorite product in stock has led to an improved overall experience and customer satisfaction

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